Wall Street: Fed riduce stimoli. E taglia stime crescita

19 Marzo 2014, di Redazione Wall Street Italia

NEW YORK (WSI) – La Federal reserve, in linea con le attese degli analisti, ridurra’ di altri 10 miliardi di dollari il programma di stimoli all’economia statunitense che passera’ cosi’ a 55 miliardi di dollari al mese, mentre i tassi d’interesse rimarranno vicini allo zero. Lo si legge nel documento dell’ultimo Federal open market committee (vedi a fondo pagina).

La Federal reserve ha quindi tagliato le sue stime di crescita dell’economia Usa per quest’anno e per il prossimo, ma ha ridotto le sue previsioni sul tasso di disoccupazione. La Fed si attende ora una crescita tra il 2,8-3% nel 2014 e del 3-3,2% nel 2015. Il tasso di disoccupazione dovrebbe invece scendere tra il 6,1% e il 6,3% quest’anno e sotto il 6% nel 2015.

Negativa la reazione del mercato dopo che, Janet Yellen, durante la conferenza stampa, ha fatto riferimento a un eventuale rialzo dei tassi “in sei mesi”, cosa che evidentemente ha indispettito i mercati. Il Dow Jones ha perso lo 0,7% a 16.222 punti, il Nasdaq e’ sceso dello 0,58% a 4.308 punti e lo S&P 500 e’ calato dello 0,60% a 1.861 punti.

Il petrolio ha chiuso sopra quota 100 dollari al barile dopo il dato sulle scorte settimanali. Il contratto ad aprile ha aggiunto 67 centesimi, lo 0,7%, a 100,37 dollari il barile, la chiusura piu’ alta dal 10 marzo. I rendimenti dei titoli di Stato americani sono balzati dopo il comunicato della Fed: il bond decennale ha chiuso al 2,77% e il trentennale al 3,65%. Sui mercati valutari, l’euro cala a 1,329 dollari e il biglietto verde avanza a 102,53 yen.

Notizie positive sul fronte macro con il deficit delle partite correnti americane che, nel quarto trimestre, è sceso a 81,12 miliardi di dollari, in forte ribasso rispetto al passivo di 96,37 miliardi registrato nel trimestre precedente. Il dato reso noto oggi dal dipartimento del Commercio è nettamente migliore delle attese degli analisti che si attendevano un disavanzo a quota 88 miliardi.

Tra i titoli, Oracle perde in borsa dopo che ieri sera ha annunciato un aumento dei profitti del 2% a 2,56 miliardi nel suo terzo trimestre fiscale terminato il 28 febbraio. Il giro d’affari e’ a sua volta lievitato del 4% a 9,31 miliardi. I risultati hanno tuttavia deluso le previsioni degli analisti. Sul versante automobilistico, piatta General Motors, all’indomani delle parole dell’amministratore delegato Mary Barra, che si e’ impegnata a migliorare gli standard di sicurezza dei veicoli, anche nominando un responsabile globale.

Sul fronte dell’analisi tecnica, secondo diversi trader di Wall Street lo S&P continuerà a gravitare attorno al livello a quota 1.880; nel caso di un superamento di tale resistenza, il prossimo target sarà a quota 2.000.

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WASHINGTON — The following is the text of the Federal Open Market Committee decision reached Wednesday:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Fed’s expectations of rate hikes.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

The Fed’s unemployment forecast

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee’s guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee’s policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee’s commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.