I listini americani sono sotto pressione testando livelli di supporto che, per l’S&P 500, si trovano a quota 1200 (rotti al ribasso con un calo per l’indice dell’1.48%). Il ritracciamento odierno segue la ritirata del 5.2% di Shanghai (l’inflazione galoppante in Cina,+4,4%, ha portato a decisioni di stretta anti-speculativa a Pechino) che si e’ fatta sentire anche sui listini europei, gia’ alle prese con i timori di un defualt irlandese (il rischio e’ di un altro caso Grecia che scuoterebbe l’UE appena pochi mesi dopo io salvataggio di Atene).
Gli indici Usa si sono cosi’ riportati sugli stessi livelli del 3 novembre, giorno in cui la Fed annuncio’ il secondo piano da $600 miliardi di allentamento monetario. Coincidenza vuole che oggi sia il primo giorno in cui e’ previsto che la stessa banca centrale americana proceda all’acquisto di Treasury per un valore da $6-8 miliardi. C’e’ stato un piccolo giallo: l’operazione era prevista alle ore 11:00 a NY (le 17:00 in Italia) ma c’e’ stato un ritardo di almeno mezz’ora dando l’occasione ai cospirazionisti di alimentare le proprie tesi secondo cui Ben Bernanke sarebbe tornato sui sui passi a proposito di Quantitative easing alla luce di alcuni recendi dati macro migliori delle attese (vedi assunzioni e fiducia). In realta’ Wall Street non ha creduto a questa ipotesi: alcuni spunti positivi non sono stati ritenuti sufficienti per cambiare in modo repentino i piani di lungo termine della Fed. E infatti, la Fed ha realizzato la prima operazione di acquisto di Treasury del QE2 da $7.229 miliardi. I dealer hanno offerto alla Fed bond per $29.039 miliardi. La portavoce della Fed di NY, Deborah Kilroe, ha comunicato che il ritardo e’ stato dovuto a problemi tecnici.
Piu’ diffusa l’interpretazione secondo cui e’ in atto un ritracciamento dopo aver osservato listini in ipercomprato. L’importante, dicono in molti, e’ tenere i livelli tecnici.
Nel frattempo questa e’ la fotografia dei mercati asiatici: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -1.9%, Shanghai -5.2%, Sensex -2.1%. A Milano il FTSE Mib ha chiuso a 20829.83 (-0.13%), meglio di Londra (-0.32%) e Parigi (-0.97%). Segno positivo per Francoforte (+0.17%) e Madrid (+0.76%).
Tornando all’Irlanda, nonostante le smentite, l’effetto crisi del debito di Dublino si e’ fatta ancora sentire e mettendo il mercato in fibrillazione. Complici anche le voci su un piano di salvataggio da 80 miliardi di euro, negato pero’ dal ministro delle finanze di Dublino. A cio’ si sono aggiunte le rassicurazioni della Commissione Europea, che smentisce a sua volta di avere ricevuto richieste di soccorso per Dublino.
Nei paesi periferici Ue si e’ assistito pero’ ad un forte allargamento degli spread sui titoli di stato rispetto al benchmark, il bund tedesco. Un vero e proprio attacco concentrico speculativo che ricorda il periodo del quasi crack della Grecuia. In Italia, Spagna e Portogallo si sono registrati nuovi massimi degli spread (il premio che indica il differenziale di rischio con il titolo di stato tedesco considerato il piu’ sicuro in Europa). Lo spread italiano si è portato al top dal 1997, fino a quota 191, come effetto anche delle emissioni di BTP di oggi fino a 8.25 miliardi di euro complessivi. Come si vede dal grafico in home page (tratto da Bloomberg) il rischio PIIGS (Portogallo, Irlanda, Italia, Grecia e Spagna) dilaga. E’ oggi al record storico dal giorno del lancio dell’euro.
Dal fronte cinese, si temono ulteriori manovre restrittive della banca centrale della Cina nel corso del fine settimana. Fonti vicine al governo comunista fanno sapere che per alcune banche del paese ci potrebbe essere un rialzo (sarebbe il quarto nel 2010) dell’1% della riserva obbligatoria (attualmente i tassi sulle riserve minime obbligatorie sono al 17.5% per alcuni istituti, livello stabilito a ottobre quando fu deciso un ritocco all’insu’ di 50 punti base). Intanto la borsa a Shanghai ha ceduto il 5.2%, peggiore performance in oltre un anno, in vista di un possibile rialzo dei tassi di interesse per contrastare l’inflazione galoppante: a ottobre ha raggiunto il top di 25 mesi.
Nulla di fatto dal G20, nonostante i commenti dei protagonisti siano stati positivi: i leader si sono impegnati a mettere in piedi, con la collaborazione del Fmi, alcune linee guida per individuare gli squilibri commerciali che richiederanno poi azioni preventive e correttive da prendere. I progressi verranno discussi nella prima metà del prossimo anno. (si veda sotto il comunicato originale).
Il mercato ignora, sul fronte americano, il dato preliminare di novembre della fiducia dei consumatori, salita ai massimi di giugno.
Nel comparto energetico, i futures sul petrolio con consegna dicembre sono in calo del 3.50% a quota $84.74 il barile. Il derivato con scadenza dicembre dell’oro segna un -2.82% a $1364 l’oncia. Sul fronte valutario l’euro avanza dello 0.02% nei confronti del dollaro a $1.3670. Il rendimento dei Treasury decennali si trova al 2.7490% in rialzo dopo l’operazione di acquisto di T-bill da parte della Fed.
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Ecco il comunicato integrale in inglese emesso alla fine del Summir del G20 a Seoul:
1. We, the Leaders of the G20, are united in our conviction that by working together we can secure a more prosperous future for the citizens of all countries.
2. When we first gathered in November 2008 to address the most severe world recession our generation has ever confronted, we pledged to support and stabilize the global economy, and at the same time, to lay the foundation for reform, to ensure the world would never face such upheaval again.
3. Over the past four Summits, we have worked with unprecedented cooperation to break the dramatic fall in the global economy to establish the basis for recovery and renewed growth.
4. The concrete steps we have taken will help ensure we are better prepared to prevent and, if necessary, to withstand future crises. We pledge to continue our coordinated efforts and act together to generate strong, sustainable and balanced growth.
5. We recognize the importance of addressing the concerns of the most vulnerable. To this end, we are determined to put jobs at the heart of the recovery, to provide social protection, decent work and also to ensure accelerated growth in low income countries (LICs).
6. Our relentless and cooperative efforts over the last two years have delivered strong results. However, we must stay vigilant.
7. Risks remain. Some of us are experiencing strong growth, while others face high levels of unemployment and sluggish recovery. Uneven growth and widening imbalances are fueling the temptation to diverge from global solutions into uncoordinated actions. However, uncoordinated policy actions will only lead to worse outcomes for all.
8. Since 2008, a common view of the challenges of the world economy, the necessary responses and our determination to resist protectionism has enabled us to both address the root causes of the crisis and safeguard the recovery. We are agreed today to develop our common view to meet these new challenges and a path to strong, sustainable and balanced growth beyond the crisis.
9. Today, the Seoul Summit delivers:
• the Seoul Action Plan composed of comprehensive, cooperative and country-specific policy actions to move closer to our shared objective. The Plan includes our commitment to:
– undertake macroeconomic policies, including fiscal consolidation where necessary, to ensure ongoing recovery and sustainable growth and enhance the stability of financial markets, in particular moving toward more market-determined exchange rate systems, enhancing exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying economic fundamentals, and refraining from competitive devaluation of currencies. Advanced economies, including those with reserve currencies, will be vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates. These actions will help mitigate the risk of excessive volatility in capital flows facing some emerging countries;
– implement a range of structural reforms that boost and sustain global demand, foster job creation, and increase the potential for growth; and
– enhance the Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) to promote external sustainability. We will strengthen multilateral cooperation to promote external sustainability and pursue the full range of policies conducive to reducing excessive imbalances and maintaining current account imbalances at sustainable levels. Persistently large imbalances, assessed against indicative guidelines to be agreed by our Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, warrant an assessment of their nature and the root causes of impediments to adjustment as part of the MAP, recognizing the need to take into account national or regional circumstances, including large commodity producers. These indicative guidelines composed of a range of indicators would serve as a mechanism to facilitate timely identification of large imbalances that require preventive and corrective actions to be taken. To support our efforts toward meeting these commitments, we call on our Framework Working Group, with technical support from the IMF and other international organizations, to develop these indicative guidelines, with progress to be discussed by our Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in the first half of 2011; and, in Gyeongju, our Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors called on the IMF to provide an assessment as part of the MAP on the progress toward external sustainability and the consistency of fiscal, monetary, financial sector, structural, exchange rate and other policies. In light of this, the first such assessment, to be based on the above mentioned indicative guidelines, will be initiated and undertaken in due course under the French Presidency.
• a modernized IMF that better reflects the changes in the world economy through greater representation of dynamic emerging markets and developing countries. These comprehensive quota and governance reforms, as outlined in the Seoul Summit Document, will enhance the IMF’s legitimacy, credibility and effectiveness, making it an even stronger institution for promoting global financial stability and growth.
• instruments to strengthen global financial safety nets, which help countries cope with financial volatility by providing them with practical tools to overcome sudden reversals of international capital flows.
• core elements of a new financial regulatory framework, including bank capital and liquidity standards, as well as measures to better regulate and effectively resolve systemically important financial institutions, complemented by more effective oversight and supervision. This new framework, complemented by other achievements as outlined in the Seoul Summit Document, will ensure a more resilient financial system by reining in the past excesses of the financial sector and better serving the needs of our economies.
• the Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth that sets out our commitment to work in partnership with other developing countries, and LICs in particular, to help them build the capacity to achieve and maximize their growth potential, thereby contributing to global rebalancing. The Seoul Consensus complements our commitment to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and focuses on concrete measures as summarized in our Multi-Year Action Plan on Development to make a tangible and significant difference in people’s lives, including in particular through the development of infrastructure in developing countries.
• the Financial Inclusion Action Plan, the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion and a flexible SME Finance Framework, all of which will significantly contribute to improving access to financial services and expanding opportunities for poor households and small and medium enterprises.
• our strong commitment to direct our negotiators to engage in across-the-board negotiations to promptly bring the Doha Development Round to a successful, ambitious, comprehensive, and balanced conclusion consistent with the mandate of the Doha Development Round and built on the progress already achieved. We recognize that 2011 is a critical window of opportunity, albeit narrow, and that engagement among our representatives must intensify and expand. We now need to complete the end game. Once such an outcome is reached, we commit to seek ratification, where necessary, in our respective systems. We are also committed to resisting all forms of protectionist measures.
10. We will continue to monitor and assess ongoing implementation of the commitments made today and in the past in a transparent and objective way. We hold ourselves accountable. What we promise, we will deliver.
11. Building on our achievements to date, we have agreed to work further on macro-prudential policy frameworks; better reflect the perspective of emerging market economies in financial regulatory reforms; strengthen regulation and oversight of shadow banking; further work on regulation and supervision of commodity derivatives markets; improve market integrity and efficiency; enhance consumer protection; pursue all outstanding governance reform issues at the IMF and World Bank; and build a more stable and resilient international monetary system, including by further strengthening global financial safety nets. We will also expand our MAP based on the indicative guidelines to be agreed.
12. To promote resilience, job creation and mitigate risks for development, we will prioritize action under the Seoul Consensus on addressing critical bottlenecks, including infrastructure deficits, food market volatility, and exclusion from financial services.
13. To provide broader, forward-looking leadership in the post-crisis economy, we will also continue our work to prevent and tackle corruption through our Anti-Corruption Action Plan; rationalize and phase-out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies; mitigate excessive fossil fuel price volatility; safeguard the global marine environment; and combat the challenges of global climate change.
14. We reaffirm our resolute commitment to fight climate change, as reflected in the Leaders’ Seoul Summit Document. We appreciate President Felipe Calderón’s briefing on the status of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations, as well as Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s briefing on the report of the High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing submitted to the UN Secretary-General. We will spare no effort to reach a balanced and successful outcome in Cancun.
15. We welcome the Fourth UN LDC Summit in Turkey and the Fourth High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Korea, both to be held in 2011.
16. Recognizing the importance of private sector-led growth and job creation, we welcome the Seoul G20 Business Summit and look forward to continuing the G20 Business Summit in upcoming Summits.
17. The actions agreed today will help to further strengthen the global economy, accelerate job creation, ensure more stable financial markets, narrow the development gap and promote broadly shared growth beyond crisis.
18. We look forward to our next meeting in 2011 in France, and subsequent meeting in 2012 in Mexico.
19. We thank Korea for its G20 Presidency and for hosting the successful Seoul Summit.
