S&P 500: «In arrivo un capitombolo da -57% a quota 450. Si torna ai livelli del 1982»

26 Agosto 2010, di Redazione Wall Street Italia

Non e’ la prima volta che alcuni economisti dicono di intravedere per gli Stati Uniti lo spettro della crisi con cui ancora il Giappone si trova a dover fare i conti dopo due decenni. Ma forse mai nessuno si era spinto oltre dicendo che quanto toccato a Tokyo e dintorni non e’ stato nulla rispetto a quanto accadra’ agli Usa.

A tracciare questo quadro tutt’altro che entusiasmante e’ Albert Edwards, global strategist della divisione Corporate & Investment Banking di Société Générale, che previde agli atti ha la corretta previsione della crisi asiatica del 1998. Dal suo ufficio di Londra, dove lavora, Edwards ha lanciato una previsione che sfida quella dei money manager piu’ ribassisti di Wall Street: “L’S&P 500 potrebbe capitombolare fino a quota 450 punti, cioe’ al livello del 1982”. Rispetto ai valori attuali significa un ritracciamento del 57% circa. Perche? “Gli Stati Uniti si trovano in una situazione molto molto peggiore di quella verificatasi in Giappone”.

“Il mercato orso non ha ancora raggiunto la fine. E’ da tempo che sosteniamo che il processo di sgonfiamento di bolle (de-bubbling) giungera’ a conclusione solo quando i prezzi sull’azionario saranno di nuovo economici”, ha spiegato lo strategist.

Secondo Edwards, “fino a quando prevale il mantra “Bond a ogni prezzo” su quello “Azioni nel lungo periodo”, non arriveremo “alla fine del nostro viaggio nell’Era Glaciale”.

Secondo l’analista di Société Générale, i rendimenti dei Titoli di Stato americani a 10 anni potrebbero scivolare nell’intervallo 1.5-2%. Quello del Bund tedesco e’ previsto scenda sotto l’1.5% mentre l’equivalente inglese sotto il 2%.

“L’azionario continua a soffrire dell’abbondante tornata di dati macroeconomici deludenti. Ci aspettiamo che i listini possano cadere come farebbe una casa di carta e cio’ accadra’ nei prossimi mesi quando l’ISM manifatturiero si portera’ sotto il livello di 50, rotto il quale si entra in territorio di recessione”, ha concluso Edwards. L’ultimo dato disponibile, quello di luglio, si e’ attestato a 55.5.

**********

Ecco il testo originale in inglese di Albert Esdward, Société Générale.

Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While bond markets at least, move to discount deflation, most sell-side analysts still say the current situation is unlike Japan a decade ago. They are right. Things now in the US are much, much worse than Japan a decade ago.

Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst.

This lack of awareness reminds me of reports this week that a 35 year old Polish man hadn’t noticed for five years that he had a bullet lodged in his head. Like the equity market in 2000, the Polish man had been partying too hard to notice that he had been shot. The BBC report the police as saying “He told us he remembered having a sore head, but that he wasn’t really one for going to the doctor.”

As the equity bloodbath of the last decade enters its final, even bloodier phase, investors continued optimism also reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail. Despite being grievously wounded by King Arthur, the Black Knight makes light of his injuries which he dismisses as a flesh wound. The vast bulk of the investment industry fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market and about to enter Act III.

This year has already seen a dramatic flip-flop in sentiment as the market has begun to acknowledge it is sinking into the deflationary quicksand. For this year outperformance in the US, for example, is over 20 percentage points.

So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the nationwide manufacturing ISM slides below 50 into recession territory in coming months. Indeed the new orders data for August, already reported in regional ISM’s suggests the equity market is going to get some sentiment crushing data in the very near term. But never mind the last standing optimist will tell us: “it is only a flesh wound”!

The structural bear market has not reached the end. We have long said that the de-bubbling process would end only when equities became very cheap and revulsion in equities as an asset class hangs in the air like a fog. The problem remains more of excess valuation within the US rather than Europe, but that will not prevent the bear market hurting other cheaper markets as much. We will return to the valuation nadir last seen in 1982 with the S&P bottoming around 450 (see chart below).