Migliori investimenti? “Dollaro e debito Piigs”

22 Maggio 2013, di Redazione Wall Street Italia

Questo articolo fa parte del filone dedicato ai consigli dei money manager italiani piu’ importanti, che gestiscono decine di milioni di euro in portafoglio. Wall Street Italia pubblichera’ a cadenza variabile le interviste. La prima, a Unicredit, era incentrata sul Portafoglio ideale, formato per meta’ da azionario. La seconda, a Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank, sul fenomeno secondo cui nei “Bond, niente è piu’ sicuro“. La terza, a Vontobel Italia, intitolata “Meglio azioni che bond, euro a $1,34 a fine anno.

NEW YORK (WSI) – Messo da parte per un attimo l’azionario schizofrenico ormai distaccato dalla realta’, i migliori investimenti possibili per un gestore di respiro internazionale sono nel dollaro americano e nel debito dei paesi cicala dell’area euro.

Gli stati membri dell’Eurozona sono i piu’ fragili finanziariamente, ma sono anche quelli che garantiscono rendimenti piu’ alti.

Quanto ai mercati finanziari che presentano i maggiori rischi, la Borsa Usa ha la spinta per correre ancora, ma in portafoglio e’ sempre meglio avere un mix equilibrato di titoli ciclici e difensivi, perche’ le fasi momentanee e improvvise di consolidamento non mancheranno.

Il rischio politico in Italia e’ stato evitato sul breve termine, ma solo rimandato fino alle prossime elezioni politiche, che si terranno indicativamente nel 2013 o al massimo l’anno prossimo.

Lo sostiene Sandra Crowl, Membro del Comitato Investimenti di Carmignac Gestion, che in un’intervista a Wall Street Italia ha reso noto il peso in percentuale delle varie classi di asset tra azioni, bond e cash nel loro fondo di investimento.

Azionario: 38,08%
Paesi industrializzati: 27,21%
Europa: 10,16%
America del Nord: 13,24%
Giappone: 3,81%
Mercati in via di sviluppo: 10,88%
Asia: 8,31%
Sudamerica: 2,57%
Bond: 55,78%
Bond dei governi dei paesi industrializzati: 16,30%
Bond dei governi dei paesi emergenti: 12,09%
Bond societari dei paesi industrializzati: 20,38%
Bond societari dei paesi emergenti: 7,01%
Cash e operazioni sui derivati: 6,14%

WALL STREET ITALIA – How should a 5 year portfolio be built? Which percentage of money should be invested in stocks, bonds, cash?

SANDRA CROWLWe don’t recommend to investors a particular asset mix however in our global balanced fund CP we have chosen to weight the three assets classes in the following manner:

Equities : 38.08%
Developed countries: 27.21%
Europe: 10.16%
North America: 13.24%
Japan: 3.81%
Emerging markets: 10.88%
Asia: 8.31%
Latin America: 2.57%
Bonds: 55.78%
Developed countries Government bonds: 16.30%
Emerging markets Government bonds: 12.09%
Developed countries corporate bonds: 20.38%
Emerging markets corporate bonds: 7.01%
Cash, cash equivalent and derivatives operations: 6.14%

WSI – Last week, JP Morgan raised its year-end target price on the S&P 500 to 1,715. Do you agree with his outlook? Do you think the index is overbought or it has still legs?

SCWe believe that the US stock market can continue to rise however there will be periods of consolidation and an investor should not be exposed only to the cyclical sensitive stocks but rather a balanced mix between cyclical and defensive stocks as we could have some growth disappointments throughout the rest of the year.

WSI – What are the main factors driving the stock markets, and why is there such optimism, considering that the Federal Reserve could decide to unwind its massive quantitative easing measures by the end of the year? 

SCAmerican companies are very profitable, but their earnings growth is starting to slow. Should there be some growth disappointments mainly from the consumer side, corporates could be quick to adjust production levels. This may feed through into lower volumes and hence earnings. But in the meantime, the continuation of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies are certainly positive for equities, as is the deflationary environment. We do not see any opportunity for the Fed to reduce the quantitative easing in a meaningful manner given the recovery in the US is only just moderate, structural unemployment is still an issue and inflation is in fact slowing, so is far from the Feds 2.5% limit target.

WSI – What are your favorite bond and Forex markets at the moment? 

SCPeripheral sovereign debt, financial corporate bonds and local emerging country debt are our preferred bond investments. The Usd is our preferred currency.

WSI – Pressures on the Italian spread has eased remarkably. Is it the right time to buy the Italian government bond market? Considering that Italy is clearly not out of danger yet, why have international investors confidence in it?

SCThe political risk in Italy has been averted for the short term awaiting new elections late in 2013 or next year. Also relatively high real yields that Italian sovereign bonds offer are attracting foreign investors back into this market in the search for yield as other developed bond markets are barely offering real returns.